Elliott wave structure

Here is a breakdown of the bullish impulsive Elliott wave structure.

Wave 1: This wave is the least obvious when it begins building up.

According to the Elliott theory, the beginning of every bull market is characterized by a flow of negative fundamental news. Almost every trader is in a bearish mood and analysts keep downgrading earnings and stock price targets. The economy too looks in tatters.

Prices may move up with volumes, but not enough to give a trend-reversal signal to traders.

Wave 2: This wave corrects the upward movement initiated by Wave 1, but does not retrace the movement back to where Wave 1 began. It retraces up to 61.8% of the Wave 1 gains. The fundamental news is still negative and the sentiment still bearish.

Wave 3: This is the largest and the strongest wave in a trend. The news remains negative at the start of the wave, but turns positive by the time the wave reaches its midpoint, which is when analysts begin raising earnings and price estimates. Prices shoot up and the corrections are almost nothing. Investors who miss the boat do not get a chance to buy into the market. Wave 3 could reach 161.8% of Wave 1.

Wave 4: During wave 4, prices move sideways and correct themselves.

Wave 4 lasts for a longish period and the extent of the drop in Wave 4 is sometimes 38.2% of Wave 3. This period may present a good time to buy stocks.

Wave 5: This is the final impulse wave. During this wave, the news is all-round positive and the market is thick with bullish sentiment. The common man now has seen enough rise in stock prices and wants to grab a slice of the pie, so he begins buying too.

Volumes drop, which can be confirmed with volume indicators, and bears vanish from the scene. Wave 5's mid-point is like the peak of a bull market.

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June -- Worst for Dow Since 1930

Index 06/30/08 Wk Chng Week % Mn Chng Mnth % Yr Chng Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %

------ -------- ------- ------ ------- ------ ------- ------ -------- ------

Dow30 11350.01 3.50 0.0% -1288.31 -10.2% -1914.81 -14.4% -147.11 -1.3%

Trans 4948.03 38.91 0.8% -489.51 -9.0% 377.48 8.3% 1970.83 66.2%

Utils 520.85 13.86 2.7% -0.80 -0.2% -11.68 -2.2% 237.49 83.8%

S&P500 1280.00 1.62 0.1% -120.38 -8.6% -188.36 -12.8% -189.25 -12.9%

Nasdaq 2292.98 -22.65 -1.0% -229.68 -9.1% -359.30 -13.5% -1776.33 -43.7%

NYSE 8660.48 36.97 0.4% -740.60 -7.9% -1079.84 -11.1% N/A N/A

Rus2000 689.66 -8.48 -1.2% -58.62 -7.8% -76.37 -10.0% 184.91 36.6%

Amex 2232.05 21.21 1.0% -123.07 -5.2% -177.57 -7.4% 1363.31 156.9%

Val Lne 1994.64 -18.17 -0.9% -232.74 -10.4% -250.94 -11.2% 968.84 94.4%

30Yr Tr 45.31 -0.06 0.1% -1.76 3.7% 0.72 -1.6% -19.49 30.1%

Bnk Idx 58.13 -1.14 -1.9% -17.74 -23.4% -30.47 -34.4% -18.87 -24.5%

MSH 35 554.48 -5.15 -0.9% -63.30 -10.2% -68.02 -10.9% -366.30 -39.8%

Consumr 647.46 -1.14 -0.2% -57.12 -8.1% -90.32 -12.2% 112.69 21.1%

Cyclicl 855.98 -3.99 -0.5% -126.16 -12.8% -145.75 -14.5% 270.20 46.1%

Airline 16.09 -0.07 -0.4% -3.02 -15.8% -18.24 -53.1% -137.38 -89.5%

Retail 352.87 -6.69 -1.9% -49.16 -12.2% -57.07 -13.9% N/A N/A

* Change since 12/31/1999

Winners-Losers 0-30 4-26

Dow Industrials Jun-30 Wk Chg Week % Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year %

--------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

General Motors 11.50 -0.05 -0.4% -5.60 -32.7% -13.39 -53.8%

Bank of America 23.87 -0.72 -2.9% -10.14 -29.8% -17.39 -42.1%

American Int Gr 26.46 -1.29 -4.6% -9.54 -26.5% -31.84 -54.6%

Citigroup 16.76 -0.49 -2.8% -5.13 -23.4% -12.68 -43.1%

Boeing 65.72 -1.20 -1.8% -17.05 -20.6% -21.74 -24.9%

JP Morgan Chase 34.31 -0.74 -2.1% -8.69 -20.2% -9.34 -21.4%

American Exprss 37.67 -0.37 -1.0% -8.68 -18.7% -14.35 -27.6%

AT&T 33.69 0.93 2.8% -6.21 -15.6% -7.87 -18.9%

Home Depot 23.42 -0.60 -2.5% -3.94 -14.4% -3.52 -13.1%

United Tech 61.70 0.55 0.9% -9.34 -13.1% -14.84 -19.4%

General Electrc 26.69 0.43 1.6% -4.03 -13.1% -10.38 -28.0%

Alcoa 35.62 0.24 0.7% -4.97 -12.2% -0.93 -2.5%

Caterpillar 73.82 0.07 0.1% -8.82 -10.7% 1.26 1.7%

DuPont 42.89 0.20 0.5% -5.02 -10.5% -1.20 -2.7%

Minn Mining Mnf 69.59 0.08 0.1% -7.97 -10.3% -14.73 -17.5%

Pfizer 17.47 0.19 1.1% -1.89 -9.8% -5.26 -23.1%

Coca-Cola 51.98 0.14 0.3% -5.28 -9.2% -9.39 -15.3%

IBM 118.53 -1.52 -1.3% -10.90 -8.4% 10.43 9.6%

Verizon Comm 35.40 1.12 3.3% -3.07 -8.0% -8.29 -19.0%

Procter-Gamble 60.81 0.32 0.5% -5.24 -7.9% -12.61 -17.2%

Intel 21.48 -0.01 0.0% -1.70 -7.3% -5.18 -19.4%

Disney 31.20 -0.37 -1.2% -2.40 -7.1% -1.08 -3.3%

Hewlett-Packard 44.21 -0.37 -0.8% -2.85 -6.1% -6.27 -12.4%

McDonald's 56.22 -0.28 -0.5% -3.10 -5.2% -2.69 -4.6%

Johnson-Johnson 64.34 0.77 1.2% -2.40 -3.6% -2.36 -3.5%

Merck 37.69 0.71 1.9% -1.27 -3.3% -20.42 -35.1%

Microsoft 27.51 -0.12 -0.4% -0.81 -2.9% -8.09 -22.7%

Wal-Mart 56.20 -0.10 -0.2% -1.54 -2.7% 8.67 18.2%

Exxon-Mobil 88.13 1.58 1.8% -0.63 -0.7% -5.56 -5.9%

Chevron-Texaco 99.13 1.33 1.4% -0.02 0.0% 6.47 7.0%

Fiend's Prime-25©

-----------------

Winners-Losers 1-24 4-21

Company Jun-30 Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year %

--------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------

Bank of America 23.87 -10.14 -29.8% -17.39 -42.1%

American Int Gr 26.46 -9.54 -26.5% -31.84 -54.6%

Citigroup 16.76 -5.13 -23.4% -12.68 -43.1%

JP Morgan Chase 34.31 -8.69 -20.2% -8.96 -20.7%

AT&T 33.69 -6.21 -15.6% -7.87 -18.9%

Wells Fargo 23.75 -3.82 -13.9% -6.13 -20.5%

General Elctrc 26.69 -4.03 -13.1% -10.38 -28.0%

Cisco 23.26 -3.46 -12.9% -3.81 -14.1%

Apple Comp 167.44 -21.31 -11.3% -30.64 -15.5%

Google 526.42 -59.38 -10.1% -165.06 -23.9%

Pfizer 17.47 -1.89 -9.8% -5.26 -23.1%

Coca Cola 51.98 -5.28 -9.2% -9.39 -15.3%

IBM 118.53 -10.90 -8.4% 10.43 9.6%

Oracle 21.00 -1.84 -8.1% -1.58 -7.0%

Verizon Comm 35.40 -3.07 -8.0% -8.29 -19.0%

Procter-Gamble 60.81 -5.24 -7.9% -12.61 -17.2%

Intel 21.48 -1.70 -7.3% -5.18 -19.4%

Pepsico 63.59 -4.71 -6.9% -12.31 -16.2%

Hewlett-Packard 44.21 -2.85 -6.1% -6.27 -12.4%

Johnson-Johnson 64.34 -2.40 -3.6% -2.36 -3.5%

Microsoft 27.51 -0.81 -2.9% -8.09 -22.7%

Wal-Mart 56.20 -1.54 -2.7% 8.67 18.2%

Exxon-Mobil 88.13 -0.63 -0.7% -5.56 -5.9%

Chevron-Texaco 99.13 -0.02 0.0% 5.80 6.2%

ConocoPhillips 94.39 1.29 1.4% 6.09 6.9%

Prime-25© 4029.88 -395.02 -8.9% -763.10 -15.9%

RNK Company (Bil) P/E Yield Symb Sector

--- ----------------- ------ ----- ----- ---- ---------------

1. Exxon-Mobil $481 12.75 1.59% XOM Energy

2. General Eltrc $270 11.97 4.65% GE Conglomerate

3. Microsoft $257 18.10 1.60% MSFT Technology

4. Wal-Mart $225 18.19 1.57% WMT Services

5. Chevron-Texaco $209 12.10 2.34% CVX Energy

6. AT&T $204 17.55 4.75% T Technology

7. Procter-Gamble $189 19.18 2.30% PG Consumer

8. Johnson-Johnson $184 18.12 2.58% JNJ Healthcare

9. Google $166 41.13 0.00% GOOG Technology

10. IBM $164 17.77 1.35% IBM Technology

11. ConocoPhillips $151 14.70 1.74% COP Energy

12. Apple Comp $147 42.61 0.00% AAPL Technology

13. Cisco $141 18.46 0.00% CSCO Technology

14. Intel $126 20.26 2.09% INTC Technology

15. Coca Cola $120 22.21 2.62% KO Consumer

16. Pfizer $119 17.30 7.33% PFE Healthcare

17. JP Morgan Chase $115 7.44 4.43% JPM Financial

18. Hewlett-Packard $114 16.50 0.72% HPQ Technology

19. Oracle $108 21.65 0.00% ORCL Technology

20. Bank of America $106 5.29 10.72% BAC Financial

21. Pepsico $102 17.09 2.36% PEP Consumer

22. Verizon Comm $102 18.53 4.86% VZ Services

23. Citigroup $83 4.51 12.89% C Financial

24. Wells Fargo $78 9.98 5.22% WFC Financial

25. American Int Gr $67 4.63 3.02% AIG Financial

_ Prime-25© $4,030 13.96 2.79%

Currencies

----------

Sep

Crrncy Jun-30 Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %

------ ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -------- ------

Pound 198.19 0.31 0.2% 0.34 0.2% 36.29 22.4%

SwFrnc 98.10 2.17 2.3% 9.72 11.0% 34.63 54.6%

Euro 156.90 1.44 0.9% 11.00 7.5% 55.29 54.4%

Yen 94.71 -0.20 -0.2% 4.58 5.1% -4.21 -4.3%

US Dlr 72.80 -0.15 -0.2% -3.96 -5.2% -28.62 -28.2%

Commodities

-----------

Aug

Cmmdty Jun-30 Mn Chg Mnth % Yr Chg Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %

------ -------- ------- ------ ------- ------ -------- ------

Gold $928.30 $36.80 4.1% $72.40 8.5% $638.70 220.5%

XAU 194.49 13.05 7.2% 21.17 12.2% 126.52 186.1%

Oil/Jl $140.00 $12.65 9.9% $45.35 47.9% $114.40 446.9%

XOI 1535.17 -34.42 -2.2% -24.53 -1.6% 1032.17 205.2%

CRB 462.74 40.57 9.6% 104.03 29.0% 257.6 125.6%

Foreign Markets

---------------

Exchng Jun-30 Mnth Chg Mnth % Year Chg Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %

------ -------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------

TSX 14467.03 -247.70 -1.7% 633.97 4.6% 6053.28 71.9%

IPC 29395.49 -2579.98 -8.1% -141.34 -0.5% 22265.61 312.3%

BVSP 65017.58 -7574.92 -10.4% 1372.71 2.2% 47925.58 280.4%

FTSE 5625.90 -427.60 -7.1% -831.00 -12.9% -1304.30 -18.8%

CAC-40 4434.85 -579.43 -11.6% -1179.23 -21.0% -1523.47 -25.6%

DAX 6418.32 -678.47 -9.6% -1649.00 -20.4% -539.82 -7.8%

MIB-30 30524.00 -3729.00 -10.9% -8361.00 -21.5%-12467.00 -29.0%

Swiss 6958.51 -552.78 -7.4% -1525.95 -18.0% -611.59 -8.1%

Nikkei 13481.38 -857.16 -6.0% -1826.40 -11.9% -5452.96 -28.8%

HngSng 22102.01 -2431.11 -9.9% -5710.64 -20.5% 5139.91 30.3%

AllOrd 5332.90 -441.00 -7.6% -1088.10 -16.9% 2180.40 69.2%

* Change since 12/31/1999

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